Please find an excerpt from our December 2024 Newsletter below.
The US Economy, the US Stock Market, and the Future
Despite the recent bout of inflation and sharp interest rate increases, the dynamic US economy has not come close to recession. This strength has been fueled by many well-known factors that have been positive attributes in the US for a long time. Though some of the fuel has come from not so positive aspects, such as record debts and deficits. There will be a lot of factors from technology to government policies to company management that will determine how long this cycle will continue; with the hope we are not headed to another debt crisis. The policies being contemplated in the US, such as stable or slightly lower taxes, decreasing regulation, a big cut in government spending, would all, if managed well, certainly keep this party going.
“Plans are successful only to the extent that they can be executed.”
- John C. Maxwell
While there has been a lot of talk about stock market optimism since the Trump election, the truth is the US markets are only up about 2% since September 30 (well before the November 5th election results were clear) and are up about 23% for the year; the Trump stock market bump has disappeared. Certain investments like cryptocurrencies, Nvidia and Tesla’s share prices are up a lot more. For the US markets and economy to keep expanding at even close to the rate of the last several years, a lot of things are going to have to go right, including a big jump in corporate profits. When I start to see articles like this “Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?" I start to get a little more cautious, diversification still has value. So, what then to think about next year as investors?
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” is a tongue-in-cheek quote often attributed to Niels Bohr (and others), the famous Danish physicist. The wisdom behind this saying is often forgotten as the rewards for predicting the future correctly can be high; and the media loves to show how “smart” these people with any particular “correct” predictions are; though much of “being correct” is down to luck even if the reasoning behind the guess was sound. Without a proverbial crystal ball, while we may not be able to predict the future, a good understanding of statistics, with enough similar data, can often give us some clues of not what WILL happen, but the likely range of events.
When being asked, “What do I think will happen in the US stock market next year?”, most people would like to hear an answer something like, "The US stock market will likely be up 10% next year". This is easy to understand and happens to be close to long-term averages. However, if I said that “I have a 95% confidence that the US stock market will have returns of between -10% to positive 20% next year and this will be normally distributed around a 10% return as the most likely outcome”, I would sound like a math nerd and most people would shutter with the memories of math classes they did not enjoy. I happened to have had a great statistics professor, Tim Kelly, many decades ago, one of my favorite classes. The reality though it is not so much what I think matters is what we should do based on any individual client’s overall situation.
Predicting what will happen to the price of anything in the future gets more challenging the further into the future we try and predict, but in the real world we are stuck making choices with imperfect information all the time. In fact, we all do this every day, we don’t know if there will be a road closed or a train running late on our way to the office in the morning, or if the internet service will be down or if it will rain…yet when the unexpected happens, we adapt. That is all about risk management.
When looking at the future of a particular stock market, we, as investors, are trying to gauge some important measurable variables such as the profits of companies and interest rates, and then we are trying to predict things such as future profitability, its growth rate, taxes, and sentiment to name a few major inputs.
The S&P 500, largely known as “The US Stock Market” has had from 2019-2024 annual returns of 29%, 16%, 27%, -19% 24%, and ~26%, an average of a 17% increase per year. The long-term average since the 1950s is a little over 10% annually, 17% a year returns seem unsustainable; though it also seemed unsustainable in 2022 when many people were waiting for an even bigger correction. A question I have periodically posed in this newsletter and often in meetings, is “Are you ready for a 20% or higher drop in the value of your investment accounts because of a drop in the stock market of 25% or more?” In fact, we should always be ready and prepared for such a drop, and we should expect most of the time, for US markets to recover to a new all-time high within two years, though it can and has taken much longer a couple of times in the past 80+ years.
The reason that posing these questions about the future is important is that it helps us focus on risk management for an individual’s situation and assessing how much risk we are comfortable advising to take. Looking at past times of extreme stress in the world and the financial markets is a good, but imperfect guide to the future, adding in an individual’s likely cash flow needs is equally important factor.
Ultimately stock market valuations are driven primarily by the financial strength of the companies that are listed and this in comparison to other investment choices and the Federal Funds rate. On this score, many companies listed in the United States are strong and getting stronger; though their valuations are looking stretched when compared to past norms. Sentiment is another factor that can drive markets to over or undershoot their intrinsic values. These effects can happen in very short time frames or much longer ones. Market places of all sorts are a place where information gathers, en masse, and one of the outputs major outputs in a market is the price of any given component. Today there is a mix of optimism (a lot of people got the results they voted for) and pessimism as a lot of people are very concerned, even the ones who got the vote they wanted. Market valuations are close to an all-time high in aggregate, driven by strong underlying profitability, and this, in spite of relatively high US interest rates.
We are seeing articles such as “The Mother of All Bubbles” and “How the Mother of All Bubbles Will Pop”, where a journalist is writing an opinion piece on why it makes sense to bet against the United States stock market. Undoubtedly, there are some elements of truth in there, but the danger of trying to take these pieces and applying them to decision making is the same reason that market timing does not work. For all the froth in the market in the US, the economy there certainly seems to have the best prospects now for future expansion.
One thing I have often stated is that it is very hard (even or especially for professionals) to predict even short-term moves in the stock market. When advising our clients, we look to their individual situations, not just financial, but also, if they are extremely stressed and losing sleep over their concerns. If clients have stable employment and enough cash and short-term bonds to weather several years of waiting for the stock market to recover from a big fall, these are also important factors. So, if you have any upcoming large cash needs on the horizon in the next couple of years, then it is better to not put this at risk in the markets. If you are regularly losing sleep due to anxiety about geopolitical concerns, then perhaps we should schedule a time to talk. There is a lot going on in the world to create uncertainty, though this is almost always the case, it is just highlighted in different ways through media, social contact/networks, etc. Times like now tend to make us more aware of the uncertainty that is always with us.
We know that historically, a 10% drop in the US stock market happens about once a year (it has been quite a while since this has happened) and a 20% or greater drop happens about every 3 years or so. During most periods, a recovery to a new high mark rarely takes more than 2 years,
at least in the US markets (around 60% of the total world’s public equity markets today) this has been the case. Knowing what to sell, when to sell it then what to buy, it takes 4 right decisions in a row, consistently to make market timing work. This is why it rarely beats, over long periods time, the “buy, hold and rebalance approach” that we use.
During the current period, there are several things that could cause economic growth to expand, and if it does not, the Federal Reserve could aggressively cut interest rates to spur growth to pick up again. There are a lot of geopolitical, and political, challenges, and I would argue that Europe and China especially face some much bigger challenges economically, demographically, and politically compared to the US, where large businesses tend to do well whomever is in control in Washington. While there will be a lot of individual impacts stemming from the election, most probably for illegal immigrants, federal workers, some targets of retribution, and more, there will also likely be a benign tax and regulatory environment and some of the changes could indeed be positive. The US is a big, dynamic, and a complex place that no one person or party can easily control for too long. Like so many other periods of political uncertainty, we are not advising making any global changes but focusing on each individual client’s circumstances.
Our clients find our newsletters to be a valuable part of working with White Lighthouse.
A sample of our past newsletters is freely available below.
Topics include:
Markets, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Central Banks
Market Timing, Dividends, Warren Buffet’s Apple Gold, and More Thoughts on Investing
The US Election on November 5th, Economy, and US Taxes
Europe’s Economy
and more!
Topics include:
The Swiss DA-1, Are You a Swiss Taxpayer and Leaving Unclaimed Money with the Swiss Government?
The Nefarious Uses of AI, Technology, and Disinformation
US Tax Information, Issues and Update, US and Swiss New FATCA Treaty (Data Exchange), and ACA
and more!
Topics include:
Markets, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Central Banks
The Swiss Franc, The Swiss National Bank and the SNB
Geopolitics, Elections, and World Events in 2024
US Tax Information, Issues, and Update
and more!
Topics include:
Freedom of Speech
A look around the world in 2024, economics, political risk, free speech
Artificial intelligence
US Tax Issues
and more!
Topics include:
Markets, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Central Banks
The USD versus the Swiss Franc – Strength or Weakness? Central Banks and the Swiss Housing Market
US Tax Issues and Update
American Citizens Abroad (ACA)
Swiss Compliance
Cybersecurity
Topics include:
Interest Rates, Inflation, and Central Banks
The US Stock Markets - Considerable Outperformance Since 1990
More Market & Investment Talk
Mortgages, Interest Rates and How to Increase Your Savings
American Citizens Abroad Update
Topics include:
Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, What is going on with the banking Industry, and Should I be worried?
Interest Rates, Inflation, and Central Banks
IRA Accounts, US Social Security, and Swiss Tax Implications
Retirement Age in France – And why this matters beyond French borders
Topics include:
Inflation, Interest Rates, Unemployment, A 2023 Recession? The Federal Reserve – When Is All This Stock Market Volatility Going to End?
A Brief World Review Of 2022 And Looking Into The Crystal Ball For 2023
Technology – What Is Chat GPT? What Is Zero Trust Cybersecurity?
FTX Bankruptcy, Fraud, And The Future Of Cryptocurrency?
Topics include:
Stock Markets Valuation
The Federal Reserve - Interest Rates - Will there be a recession?
Everything Else Impacting the Global Economy
Midterm Elections Around the Corner
US Tax Update & The Tax Preparation Industry
US and Swiss Income Tax Treaty and Federal Benefits
Federal Benefits and Getting a New Social Security Number Overseas
Long Term Care, Critical Illness, and Estate Planning
Inherited IRA Rules
Topics include:
The Stock Markets
The Federal Reserve – Interest Rates
Inflation
Corporate Earnings
Cryptocurrency
Topics include:
What’s Influencing the Stock Markets Volatility to Start 2022?
Ukraine
China’s Stock Market
DONA - A New Coffee Brand
Invest Like Aysha
Personal Cybersecurity
Switzerland - Interest Rates on Mortgages - The US too!
Your Tax Return Is Getting Longer Again in 2022, Here’s Why
Topics include:
What’s Going on in the Stock Markets & Economic Outlook for 2022?
US Taxpayers Corner
Inflation, Geo-Politics and Retirement Planning
Swiss Compliance
Travel / COVID/ Miscellaneous Switzerland Information
Topics include:
The market hits a new high, should you really be investing more?
US Tax Return snapshot
Potential Tax Changes in the US
China, Big Tech, Gold, Inflation, and Interest Rates
United States Life Insurance for Non-Residents of the US
Travel/COVID
Topics include:
Inflation Part 1: All about that Base and other inflation considerations
Inflation Part 2: The Federal Reserve
Investment Philosophy
How will the Post Corona world be different?
Big Tech, Data, Privacy, Taxes and Break-ups?
Topics include:
Stock Markets & Sectors
Currencies, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Expectations
Global Events and Anecdotes
Taxes, Taxes and More Taxes
What does President Biden’s Tax agenda mean for you?
Topics include:
Global Events likely to impact markets in 2021
Swiss Franc strength (not really dollar weakness)
Are you filing a DA-1 with your Swiss Taxes? By Arielle Tucker
US Social Security Updates - Overseas Issues
Topics include:
Global Events including the US Presidential Election
What to expect from the world’s stock markets? Should you be de-risking before the US Presidential Election? Hint: “No, this is market timing”
COVID-19 - Where are we going?
Topics include:
Do current stock market valuations make sense?
Have we entered a new era of anti-globalization?
COVID-19 - Crystal Ball from a non-health professional
Update on the State of the World
Topics include:
Personal planning in the middle of a pandemic
Government actions during the pandemic
Stock Markets - Shocks to the System
Small Business Owners Adapting and Staying FIT
WLIM Business Continuity Planning
The CARES Act major provisions for individuals
Update on the State of the World
Topics include:
Health First!
Looking forward - Short term and longer term
Impact on the Financial Markets
Our Investment Strategy - Consistency in a time of Volatility
Topics include:
Stock Markets 2019 and 2020
WLIM Information and News
Swiss Financial Regulations
Weight Loss - 32 Years Later - Down 40 Pounds in 10 Weeks & Holding
The Affordable Care Act - One Client’s Experience in Colorado
News from Custodians: Schwab, Pershing, Swissquote Bank, IB…
Topics include:
Swiss Real Estate Market Overheating - Personal Concerns
US-Swiss Tax Treaty Ratified by the US Senate
American Citizens Abroad, Inc. (ACA) launches Tax Fairness for Americans Abroad Campaign
Charles Schwab & Co. ETF policy in EU
Organ Donation in Switzerland - Follow-up from our last newsletter
Topics include:
Transferwise - Foreign Currency Payments & Transfers - Easier and Less Expensive…Mostly
Swiss Real Estate Market Overheating - Global Concerns
A new addition to the White Lighthouse Investment Management team
Topics include:
What to expect in the 2018 US Tax Season
Socially Responsible Investing
Online American Notary Service
Various items from ETIAS, Swiss 1000 Francs, and World Events
American Citizens Abroad (ACA), Tax Reform and a Bill in Congress
Topics include:
World Events
The Economy and Interest Rates
Book Review: “Rich Habits: The Daily Success Habits of Wealth Individuals” by Tom Corley
The Forms W-8BEN and W-9
US Based Clients with Accounts at Charles Schwab and Company
American Citizens Abroad (ACA) Town Hall in Zurich & Tax-Reform for American Citizens Abroad
Topics include:
Estate Planning
Saving Enough or Spending Too Much?
An Investment Book for Teens
Are You Ready for the Next 25% Drop or More in Global Stock Markets and In Your Investment Accounts
What’s Going On In Europe? The Euro is Rising!
World Topics
US Taxpayers Overseas - American Citizen’s Abroad (ACA) Town Halls in Basel & Zurich
Topics include:
Brexit News & Analysis
Investment Portfolio Management - Strategy, Impacts on Your Portfolio & Decision Making
Is the S&P 500 Over-valued? Does it matter?
When 1 in 10,000 or more odds is just not good enough
Personal Financial Considerations